失業率可能會升高,但這是因為勞動力增多,而不是工作崗位減少。
阿波羅全球管理公司首席經濟學家托爾斯滕·斯洛克認為,近期失業率上升是由于移民激增擴大了美國的勞動力供應,而非大范圍裁員。該公司是全球最大的私募股權公司之一,管理資產達6960億美元。
根據美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的數據,失業率在過去五個月中持續上升,目前已達4.3%。這一趨勢引發了人們對于經濟衰退即將到來的擔憂。失業率上升往往預示著經濟衰退,因為公司會通過裁員來削減成本,并為未來的艱難時期做好準備。
然而,正如斯洛克所指出的,并未出現大規模裁員。事實上,今年的裁員情況相對穩定,每月裁員人數大致在150萬至160萬之間。6月的裁員人數是今年迄今為止最少的。
相反,有更多的人加入了勞動力大軍——即便他們當下并未就業。“失業率上升的根源并非裁員,而是由于移民增加導致的勞動力供應上升,”斯洛克在一封電子郵件中寫道。
美國國會預算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)的數據顯示,2022年,美國的凈移民人數達到260萬。2023年,這一數字躍升至330萬。預計2024年的凈移民人數將維持相同水平。
長期以來,在疫情后的勞動力市場緊缺時期,移民填補了勞動力短缺,從而有助于支撐美國經濟。移民得以就業、獲得薪酬,并將所得用于購買商品和服務,使經濟在面臨衰退風險時仍能保持正常運轉。根據堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行(Kansas City Fed)的研究,移民也有助于為過熱的勞動力市場降溫。然而,堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行的研究還表明,移民人數的上升也降低了工資增長。盡管這在短期內有助于控制通貨膨脹,但從長期來看,損害了勞動者的收入潛力。
7月公布的最新一輪就業數據引發了經濟學家所謂的薩姆規則(Sahm Rule),即如果美國失業率三個月的移動平均值比此前12個月的滾動移動平均值最低點高出0.5個百分點或更多時,經濟即將進入衰退。包括斯洛克在內的許多經濟學家注意到了這一情況,但并未對此給予重視。
斯洛克說:"薩姆規則是為勞動力需求下降的情況設計的,而非針對移民增加的情況。”
該規則的提出者克勞迪婭·薩姆(Claudia Sahm)對此表示贊同。周三,這位新世紀顧問公司(New Century Advisors)的首席經濟學家在為彭博社撰寫的一篇專欄文章中解釋說,她的規則并沒有區分勞動力供應增加和勞動力供應減少的情況,這兩種情況都會導致失業率上升,但原因不同。她寫道:"一旦工作崗位'趕上'新增的求職者,更多的勞動者能夠促使經濟加速增長,失業率就會下降。薩姆規則并沒有區分這兩種動態,而且當勞動力迅速擴張時,這可能看起來更像是不祥之兆。”
上個月,當被問及薩姆規則時,美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)暗示了他對此的看法。鮑威爾稱這一規則為“統計規律”,而不是“經濟規律(告訴你某事必然發生)”。
斯洛克引用了鮑威爾的建議,即在正確評估經濟時應考慮多個指標,而不是僅看一個指標。斯洛克寫道,鮑威爾“表示,我們應該關注數據的整體性,而不僅僅是一個數據點。綜合所有數據來看,經濟依然穩健。”
斯洛克在上周發表的一篇博文中提到,消費者在航空旅行和餐飲等方面的支出水平較高,這表明經濟正在放緩,但并未崩潰,而是正朝著軟著陸的方向發展。然而,消費者行為仍有一些顯著變化,預示著未來可能會面臨更嚴峻的經濟形勢。在過去的兩個月里,零售支出一直搖擺不定,第二季度信用卡違約率上升,這兩者對于美國消費驅動型經濟的健康發展不是好兆頭。(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
失業率可能會升高,但這是因為勞動力增多,而不是工作崗位減少。
阿波羅全球管理公司首席經濟學家托爾斯滕·斯洛克認為,近期失業率上升是由于移民激增擴大了美國的勞動力供應,而非大范圍裁員。該公司是全球最大的私募股權公司之一,管理資產達6960億美元。
根據美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的數據,失業率在過去五個月中持續上升,目前已達4.3%。這一趨勢引發了人們對于經濟衰退即將到來的擔憂。失業率上升往往預示著經濟衰退,因為公司會通過裁員來削減成本,并為未來的艱難時期做好準備。
然而,正如斯洛克所指出的,并未出現大規模裁員。事實上,今年的裁員情況相對穩定,每月裁員人數大致在150萬至160萬之間。6月的裁員人數是今年迄今為止最少的。
相反,有更多的人加入了勞動力大軍——即便他們當下并未就業。“失業率上升的根源并非裁員,而是由于移民增加導致的勞動力供應上升,”斯洛克在一封電子郵件中寫道。
美國國會預算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)的數據顯示,2022年,美國的凈移民人數達到260萬。2023年,這一數字躍升至330萬。預計2024年的凈移民人數將維持相同水平。
長期以來,在疫情后的勞動力市場緊缺時期,移民填補了勞動力短缺,從而有助于支撐美國經濟。移民得以就業、獲得薪酬,并將所得用于購買商品和服務,使經濟在面臨衰退風險時仍能保持正常運轉。根據堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行(Kansas City Fed)的研究,移民也有助于為過熱的勞動力市場降溫。然而,堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行的研究還表明,移民人數的上升也降低了工資增長。盡管這在短期內有助于控制通貨膨脹,但從長期來看,損害了勞動者的收入潛力。
7月公布的最新一輪就業數據引發了經濟學家所謂的薩姆規則(Sahm Rule),即如果美國失業率三個月的移動平均值比此前12個月的滾動移動平均值最低點高出0.5個百分點或更多時,經濟即將進入衰退。包括斯洛克在內的許多經濟學家注意到了這一情況,但并未對此給予重視。
斯洛克說:"薩姆規則是為勞動力需求下降的情況設計的,而非針對移民增加的情況。”
該規則的提出者克勞迪婭·薩姆(Claudia Sahm)對此表示贊同。周三,這位新世紀顧問公司(New Century Advisors)的首席經濟學家在為彭博社撰寫的一篇專欄文章中解釋說,她的規則并沒有區分勞動力供應增加和勞動力供應減少的情況,這兩種情況都會導致失業率上升,但原因不同。她寫道:"一旦工作崗位'趕上'新增的求職者,更多的勞動者能夠促使經濟加速增長,失業率就會下降。薩姆規則并沒有區分這兩種動態,而且當勞動力迅速擴張時,這可能看起來更像是不祥之兆。”
上個月,當被問及薩姆規則時,美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)暗示了他對此的看法。鮑威爾稱這一規則為“統計規律”,而不是“經濟規律(告訴你某事必然發生)”。
斯洛克引用了鮑威爾的建議,即在正確評估經濟時應考慮多個指標,而不是僅看一個指標。斯洛克寫道,鮑威爾“表示,我們應該關注數據的整體性,而不僅僅是一個數據點。綜合所有數據來看,經濟依然穩健。”
斯洛克在上周發表的一篇博文中提到,消費者在航空旅行和餐飲等方面的支出水平較高,這表明經濟正在放緩,但并未崩潰,而是正朝著軟著陸的方向發展。然而,消費者行為仍有一些顯著變化,預示著未來可能會面臨更嚴峻的經濟形勢。在過去的兩個月里,零售支出一直搖擺不定,第二季度信用卡違約率上升,這兩者對于美國消費驅動型經濟的健康發展不是好兆頭。(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
The unemployment rate may be higher, but it’s because there are more workers, not fewer jobs.
The recent rise in unemployment is the result of an immigration surge that has expanded the labor supply in the U.S., rather than widespread job cuts, according to Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok. Apollo is one of the world’s largest private equity firms with $696 billion in assets under management.
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate has increased for the past five months to its current level of 4.3%. That trend led to concerns a recession was on the horizon. A rise in the unemployment rate often presages a recession, as companies lay off workers in an effort to cut costs and brace themselves for tough times ahead.
However, as Slok points out, there haven’t been mass layoffs. In fact, layoffs have been relatively flat for the year, hovering between roughly 1.5 million to 1.6 million a month. June had the lowest number of layoffs so far this year.
Instead there are more people joining the labor force—even if they aren’t working at the moment. “The source of the rise in the unemployment rate is not job cuts but a rise in labor supply because of rising immigration,” Slok wrote in an email.
In 2022, net immigration to the U.S. amounted to 2.6 million people, according to the Congressional Budget Office. In 2023, that number jumped to 3.3 million. Forecasts for 2024 expect the same levels of net immigration.
For a long time immigration helped prop up the U.S. economy by filling labor shortages during the tight labor market in the aftermath of the pandemic. Immigrants were employed, getting paid, and spending that money on goods and services, keeping the economy chugging along when it risked faltering. Immigrants also helped cool an overheated labor market, according to research from the Kansas City Fed. However, the uptick in immigration also reduced wage growth, according to the Kansas City Fed’s research, which while helpful to keep inflation from getting out of hand in the short term, harms workers’ earning potential over the long term.
The most recent round of employment data released in July triggered what economists call the Sahm Rule, which states that if the three-month rolling average of the unemployment rate is at least 0.5% higher than the 12-month low, the economy is at the start of a recession. A fact that many economists, Slok among them, noticed yet brushed aside.
“The Sahm Rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration,” Slok said.
Claudia Sahm, the inventor of the rule, agreed. On Wednesday in an op-ed for Bloomberg, the chief economist at New Century Advisors explained that her rule doesn’t distinguish between a rise in labor supply and a reduction in labor supply, which both raise the unemployment rate but for different reasons. “The rate will decrease once the jobs ‘catch up’ with the new job seekers and more workers allow the economy to grow more,” she wrote. “The Sahm Rule does not distinguish between these two dynamics, and can look more ominous when the labor force is expanding rapidly.”
When asked about the Sahm Rule last month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at her points. Powell called the rule a “statistical regularity” and not “an economic rule where it’s telling you something must happen.”
Slok cited Powell’s recommendation to look at more than just a single metric to properly assess the economy. Powell “said we should focus on the totality of the data, not just on one data point,” Slok wrote. “And the totality of the data still shows an economy that is solid.”
In a blog post published last week, Slok cited high levels of consumer spending on purchases like air travel and restaurants as signs the economy was slowing, but not cratering, and headed for a soft landing. Yet there are still some notable changes in consumer behavior that indicate tougher economic times could lie ahead. Retail spending has been wobbly in the past two months, and credit card delinquencies rose through the second quarter, neither of which bode well for the health of the U.S.’s consumer-driven economy.